Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Back into the future.......

Hypothetically speaking, if you need to invest now for future income, what business is safe for you to bet your money on ? I am no oracle, but looking at current technology development, I would be probably be financially safer if I avoid investing in the following type of businesses :

  1. Telephone company : Traditionally, telephone company makes profits from long distant and oversea calls. But with the internet and voice over internet protocols, we can now unlimited free calls to anywhere in the world. Looking back the past one year, ALL my long distant call are made through Yahoo messenger or Skype. So, investing in telephone company for future income doen't sound quite right for me.
  2. TV Station and Pay TV – At the moment, how many households actually tuned into RTM 1, RTM2, TV 3, etc. ? I presumed probably more than 90% of the TV are tuned into Astro. Assuming that in 10 years time, which is quite likely, the bandwidth of broadband internet connection will hit 1 gigabit as compared to the present 1 megabit per second. Who would want to pay RM100 per month to Astro to subscribe to the TV program when one can have free streaming of TV program from all over the world via internet ? Hmmm... should I invest in this businesses that promised future extinctions ?
  3. Local Newspapers – Would you still pay to get a hardcopy news when you can get much more credible and varieties of news from the internet ? Would you still advertise in the newspapers when the circulations is limited as compared to global coverage of internet 7/24 ? So, why bother investing in a dying industry ?
  4. IT Companies – Globally and locally, most of the big IT companies are downsizing due to competitions and significantly reduced profit margins. What used to be highly priced value added services are now becoming low price commodity. Computers nowadays don't need high paid “IT professionals” to operate anymore. A primary school students can operate the computer as good as those IT professionals. An MRP or ERP software used to costs more than RM 1 million, but now, for RM 25K, you can get an equally impressive MRP or ERP system. So, for all those Mesdaq based IT companies, it is Game Over !

In 10 years time, I do hope some genius can invent a portable and cheap gadget for us to convert energy from the sun or magnetic forces of the earth into electricity for residential and commercial premises. When that happened, we will be free from paying through our nose to the national electricity company. I still confidently believe this miracle will happen in my life time. So, investing my hard earned money in Tenaga Nasional Bhd is, for the time being, not my favorite yet.

Let's also hope those short fellas from the land of the rising sun can come up with automobiles fully powered by hydrogen derived from water. Honestly, I still naively believe this innovation can also come about in my life time. So, investing in companies with petroleum related businesses are still considered high risks for me.

Now, in term of which country to invest in, I think it would be probably safer to invest my money in country like China rather than businesses in Malaysia. We are now in the 21st century, and don't put those political slogan of “Don't ask what the country can do for you, ask what you can do for the country” to question my patriotism. As far as I am concern, these sort of slogans are meant to favour the politicians seeking popularity. It has nothing to do with average men like me. If I am going to invest my hard earned money into the country, I think I have every rights to question what the country can do for me rather then riding the political slogan of the few selected elitist politicians.

What should I invest in to ensure better future incomes to sustain my retirement age ? I think the safest bet for me is, to invest in gambling, vice, and entertainment related businesses. The oldest profession and earliest “sinful” businesses of mankind still exist today, and they are all profitable. Aren't they ? So, is it sinful to derive income from these businesses ? Come on, give me a break. Taxes from this sinful businesses such as your favorite empat ekor, lotteries, cigarettes, liquors, etc. actually do contribute to the building of infrastructure and the comforts of your homes. In fact, some of the favorite sport telecasts are actually sponsored by tobacco companies ! Ask the lawyers whether it is sinful accept fees from criminals in the name of defending the criminals' constitution rights. Aren't you either directly or indirectly enjoying the fruits of other people's sins ? So, let's not be hypocrites but be practical.

Whatever it is, once I have enough assurances of future income for my retirement age, I will quit all my jobs. I will probably rent a small stall in a coffee shop selling wanton mee. I figured, selling 20 bowls of wanton mee will probably keep me busy for in the morning and healthy for the rest of my life.

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